If a Trump presidential victory becomes a reality, it could lead investors to consider yield curve steepeners as a profitable investment. Morgan Stanley predicts that economic growth will slow down and inflation may increase under such circumstances. The recent US presidential debate has heightened the possibility of Trump being re-elected, leading to an intensification of focus on his immigration and tariff policies.
In response to this outlook, bond traders are preparing for a scenario where the yield curve steepens. Last week, the yield discount of 10-year notes over two-year securities saw a significant decrease, which is the largest since January. This indicates that investors are adjusting their strategies in anticipation of a Trump re-election and the potential economic changes that may follow. Overall, market sentiment is shifting towards expecting slower growth and higher inflation if Trump wins the upcoming election.
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