US Unlikely to See a Soft Landing

Economic Fragility: Apollo Management Chief Economist Torsten Sløk Predicts Less Than a 50% Chance of Soft Landing for US Economy

In a recent interview with Bloomberg, Apollo Management’s chief economist Torsten Sløk expressed his concerns over the fragile balance between easing financial conditions and the impact of the Fed’s rate hikes. He now predicts that a soft landing for the US economy is less likely to happen, with less than a 50% chance of it occurring.

According to Sløk, one of the factors contributing to this dire economic forecast is the ease of financial conditions observed in the economy. Companies have been issuing more high-yield and investment-grade bonds, and market activities like IPOs and mergers and acquisitions have seen a resurgence. These have also helped strengthen the job market, as indicated by the January jobs report. However, these favorable economic indicators are counteracted by the lagged effects of the Fed’s interest rate hikes, which have slowed down consumers, firms, and bank lending. The high interest rates have complicated the borrowing process, particularly in markets like commercial real estate. This tension between the two opposing forces has placed the economy in a precarious, fragile balance.

In contrast to his previous position as an advocate for a soft landing, Sløk now believes that there is now a higher than 50% chance of a hard landing or no landing at all for

Leave a Reply

Jack Dorsey sported a Satoshi T-shirt with a Nirvana-style logo at the Super Bowl. Previous post Jack Dorsey’s “Satoshi” T-Shirt at the Super Bowl: A Bold Statement of Belief in Bitcoin
Syra Health secures third contract in Virginia to develop healthcare workforce Next post Syra Health lands third contract in Virginia to support Fairfax County’s healthcare workforce.