Baseball Reference Predicts Yankees to End Season in Last Place

2024 Baseball Season: New York Yankees’ Chances at Postseason Success: A Closer Look

In the 2024 baseball season, Baseball Reference predicts that the New York Yankees have a 2.7 percent chance of making the postseason and winning just 71.6 games, which is less than both the Pirates and Ohtani-less Angels. However, Fangraphs projects that the Yankees will win 88 games, which is the fourth most in all of baseball. On the other hand, BetRivers Sportsbook believes that the Yankees will win 91.5 games with a third-best chance to win the most games in baseball at +650.

While Baseball Reference’s projections are based on their Simple Rating System that calculates run differential and strength of schedule from previous year’s prior 100 games, they do not take into account injuries, players or variance but only focuses solely on run differentials and changes in schedule difficulty. Despite this pessimistic outlook, the Yankees have made significant offseason acquisitions such as Juan Soto, which should greatly improve their offense. Additionally, if Aaron Judge can stay healthy and play a full season, the Yankees have a chance to turn things around from their disappointing 2023 season.

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